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German companies plan job cuts ahead of minimum wage hike: ifo

08 Dec '25
2 min read
German companies plan job cuts ahead of minimum wage hike: ifo
Pic: Adobe Stock

Insights

  • Germany's planned minimum wage rise to €13.90 from January 1, 2026 is prompting caution among affected firms, with 22 per cent planning job cuts and 28 per cent expecting to reduce investment, according to the ifo Institute.
  • Half intend to raise prices, while many foresee weaker profits and competitiveness.
  • The impact is high in retail and textiles industries.
More than one in five affected companies in Germany (22 per cent) plans to cut jobs due to the upcoming minimum wage increase. It will be raised to €13.90 (~$16.12) effective January 1, 2026. In addition, more than a quarter of them (28 per cent) expect to invest less, according to a recent study by the ifo Institute.

Every second company affected (50 per cent) plans to increase prices. Other consequences cited by respondents were lower profits and a poorer competitive position.

The study is based on data from the October 2025 ifo Business Survey of over 4,600 companies in Germany. It also compares the current survey with the reactions of companies to the minimum wage increase in 2022, when the companies affected expect far lower effects on their profitability and demand and were therefore less likely to plan to respond by cutting jobs and investments.

“The upcoming minimum wage increase at the turn of the year represents a significant rise in wage costs for the companies affected,” said ifo researcher Sebastian Link. “The reactions of companies show that raising the minimum wage is particularly damaging in the current phase of economic weakness. Although companies are similarly affected as was the case with the last large increase in 2022, more of them are planning to cut jobs and investments.”

The rise from €12.82 (~$14.87) to €13.90 (~$16.12) per hour corresponds to an increase of 8.4 per cent. The minimum wage will therefore rise far more strongly than the general collectively agreed wages, which are expected to increase by just three per cent in 2026.

More than a third of the companies surveyed (37 per cent) stated that they were directly affected – with hospitality (77 per cent) and retail (71 per cent) leading the way. Among manufacturing companies, the textile and clothing industry (62 per cent) is mainly impacted by the minimum wage increase.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (RR)

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