Impact of US Tariffs on India and China’s Chemical Trade

Key Takeaways

US tariffs on Indian and Chinese chemicals are reshaping trade dynamics.
India faces export challenges in key sectors like organic chemicals, but minimal impact on plastics.
China, on the other hand, will likely experience short-term losses in high-tariff segments, with a long-term focus on diversifying away from US dependence.
Both nations are adjusting to evolving global markets.

Impact of US Tariffs on India’s Chemical Exports
The recent imposition of US tariffs is expected to significantly impact India’s chemical exports, especially in segments where it holds a strong share such as amines, ketones, and hypochlorite. Organic chemicals crucial to pharmaceutical and agricultural sectors may lose competitiveness due to pricing pressures. Inorganic exports like chlorides and disinfectants also face high exposure, though strategic materials like carbon black may remain stable. Meanwhile, India’s polymer and plastic import, with lower US dependence, are likely to see only moderate to minimal disruption. It is yet to be seen if the expected India – US trade pact will bring significant changes in below or not.

Impact of US Tariffs on India’s Chemical Exports
(All trade data for April 2025 \| Unit: US Dollar Thousand)
Segment	Product Description	India’s Exports to US ($000)	US Global Imports ($000)	India’s Share (%)	Tariff Impact Level	Impact Insight
Organic Chemicals (HS 29)	Amine-function compounds	19,274	92,100	20.93%	High	Key pharma/ Agro intermediates face tariff pressure; may lose price advantage
	Ketones & quinones	14,319	77,264	18.53%	High	Strong export segment: US tariffs may shift sourcing to alternate suppliers
	Vitamins & provitamins	10,075	1,30,862	7.70%	Medium	Robust global demand may buffer some impact; still vulnerable to price hikes
	Nitrogen heterocyclic compounds	23,659	6,43,995	3.67%	Medium	Tariffs may disrupt niche pharma/agrochemical export flow
Inorganic Chemicals (HS 28)	Carbon "carbon blacks and other forms of carbon	6,646	31,970	20.80%	Low	Strategic raw material for tires/inks; US may retain Indian sourcing
	Chlorides/bromides/iodides	5,362	37,894	14.10%	High	Industrial base chemicals likely to face sourcing shifts due to tariffs
	Hypochlorite	1,227	5,632	21.80%	High	Key disinfectant product; high sensitivity to price changes in water treatment
	Non-radioactive isotopes	1,395	12,619	11.10%	Medium	Specialty usage (medical/tech); moderate exposure
	Phosphates/polyphosphates	945	35,144	2.70%	Low	Minor US dependence; minimal immediate impact
Segment	Product Description	India’s Import from US ($000)	US Global Export ($000)	India’s Share (%)	Tariff Impact Level	Impact Insight
Polymers & Plastics (HS 39)	Cellulose derivatives	9,071	1,38,919	6.53%	Medium	Niche pharma use affected; limited substitutes may raise short-term costs.
	Epoxide resins/polycarbonates	12,170	4,54,283	2.68%	Medium	High-spec imports hit; electronics and coatings may face sourcing issues.
	Plastic sheets/films	11,572	4,62,765	2.50%	Medium	Packaging costs may rise; buyers likely to seek cheaper global alternatives.
	Polyethylene polymers	24,809	13,63,102	1.82%	Low	Negligible effect; India relies more on Middle East and Asian suppliers.
	Other plastic articles	9,184	7,89,583	1.16%	Low	Limited US presence; low-risk exposure

Impact of US Tariffs on China Chemical Exports
The imposition of US tariffs on Chinese chemicals is triggering notable shifts in global trade flows. With rising costs on key inputs, many US buyers are reassessing reliance on China for specialty and bulk chemicals. This disruption opens space for alternate suppliers from India, Southeast Asia, and the EU. Chinese exporters may face declining volumes in high-tariff segments, especially where US dependence was high. Over time, this could accelerate China’s pivot toward domestic consumption and non-Western markets.

Impact of US Tariffs on China Chemical Exports
(All trade data for April 2025 \| Unit: US Dollar Thousand)
HS Code	Product Description	China Exports to US ($000)	US Imports from World ($000)	% Share	Tariff Impact Level	Impact Insight
Inorganic Chemicals (HS 28)	Chlorides/iodides	8,878	37,894	23.43%	High	Critical industrial salts: price rise likely, spurring alternative sourcing.
	Aluminium oxide & hydroxide	8,064	1,16,387	6.93%	Low	Widely sourced globally; low strategic impact.
	Carbides	1,889	16,801	11.24%	Medium	Used in tooling and abrasives; moderate sourcing pivot expected.
	Iron oxides/hydroxides	3,830	17,910	21.38%	High	Pigments industry at risk; alternative sourcing sought.
	Fluorides and related compounds	2,734	15,816	17.29%	Medium	Specialty chemicals—search for regional suppliers likely.
	Phosphates & polyphosphates	3,439	35,144	9.79%	Low	Agricultural segment mitigates impact.
	Sulphates/alums	734	28,377	2.59%	Low	Minimal strategic effect.
	Hydrazine/hydroxylamine	4,030	93,999	4.29%	Low	Niche market; price changes limited.
	Carbonates & percarbonates	467	42,069	1.11%	Low	Negligible impact.
	Hydrides, nitrides, silicide’s, borides	411	3,305	12.43%	Medium	Specialty materials; medium sourcing risk.
	Titanium oxides	447	5,357	8.35%	Low	Global sourcing strong—low concern.
	Sulphides	673	1,352	49.78%	High	Crucial for industrial use; source shift needed.
	Hydrogen & rare gases	590	79,995	0.74%	Low	Negligible exposure.
Plastics & Polymers (HS 39)	Acrylic polymers, primary forms	4,853	1,13,610	4.27%	Low	Commodity market minor supplier shifts likely.
	Silicones, primary forms	5,612	62,158	9.03%	Low	Industrial/medical demand steady—source alternatives available.
	Cellulose derivatives, primary forms	4,162	62,428	6.67%	Low	Pharma/packaging support diversity of sources.
	Polyamides, primary forms	1,172	63,078	1.86%	Low	Widely diversified—minimal tariff effect.
Organic Chemical (HS 29)	Heterocyclic compounds w/ nitrogen hetero atoms only	87,159	6,43,995	13.53%	Medium	Likely moderate substitution from India/EU; near-term sourcing strain.
	Nucleic acids and related heterocyclic compounds	41,600	17,44,654	2.39%	Low	Low macro impact; affects specialty biotech players relying on Chinese intermediates.
	Provitamins and vitamins	44,398	1,30,862	33.94%	High	High dependency; direct impact on food supplements and pharma.
	Organo-inorganic compounds (excl. organo-sulphur)	35,684	94,098	37.92%	High	Significant reliance on China; price hikes likely in industrial & pharma segments.
	Oxygen-function amino-compounds	29,382	1,51,387	19.41%	Medium	Substitutable but limited short-term alternatives; affects pharma/agro intermediates.
	Ketones and quinones	26,429	77,624	34.04%	High	China plays a key global role; tariffs likely to cause price spikes.
	Heterocyclic compounds w/ oxygen hetero atoms	26,686	1,05,926	25.19%	Medium	Core pharma building blocks; will likely trigger procurement diversification.
	Hormones, prostaglandins, leukotrienes	38,495	24,11,114	1.60%	Low	Low aggregate risk, but individual molecules may face localised shortages.
	Carboxy amide-function & carbonic acid amides	21,531	1,25,220	17.20%	Medium	Mid-level disruption: users may shift sourcing to EU or India.
	Poly carboxylic acids	6,481	88,612	7.32%	Low	Moderate price increases likely for polymers, coatings industries.

Strategic Implications

For India: The US tariffs present a mixed picture while export competitiveness is threatened in core chemical categories, import-side disruption remains minimal, and market share gains are possible in areas vacated by China.

For China: The tariffs act as a clear push toward trade realignment, with short-term losses likely in high-tariff categories and medium-term diversification away from US dependence.

Conclusion

The imposition of US tariffs on chemical exports from India and China has distinct strategic implications for both countries. India faces significant challenges with potential impacts on its organic and inorganic chemical exports, particularly in segments crucial to pharmaceuticals and agriculture. While some categories like carbon black remain stable, others such as amine-function compounds and hypochlorite face high tariff pressures. However, India's polymer and plastic imports, less dependent on the US, are expected to see minimal disruption.

For China, the tariffs are prompting a shift towards domestic consumption and alternative global markets. High-tariff segments like certain inorganic chemicals and organic compounds will likely experience declining exports to the US, fostering a need for diversification. The medium-term strategy for China involves reducing reliance on US markets and seeking new trade partnerships in Southeast Asia, Europe, and potentially other non-Western regions.

Overall, while both countries navigate the immediate impacts of tariff measures, the long-term implications include potential shifts in global trade dynamics and strategic repositioning in chemical exports.

FAQs

How do US tariffs impact India’s chemical exports?

US tariffs significantly affect India’s exports in sectors like organic chemicals, especially those used in pharmaceutical and agriculture. Pricing pressures may cause India to lose its price advantage in these segments, though some products like carbon black remain less affected.

How do US tariffs impact India’s chemical exports?

What is the effect of US tariffs on China’s chemical trade? The tariffs are pushing China to diversify its chemical exports away from the US to other markets like Southeast Asia and Europe. High-tariff segments, especially organic and inorganic chemicals, face declining volumes in the US due to increased costs.

Will India benefit from the US tariffs imposed on China?

Yes, India stands to gain market share in areas vacated by China, particularly in chemicals where the US relied heavily on Chinese imports. India's minimal reliance on the US for certain polymer and plastic imports also reduces its exposure to tariff disruptions.

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Impact of US Tariffs on India and China’s Chemical Trade

Table of Contents

Key Takeaways

Conclusion

FAQs

How do US tariffs impact India’s chemical exports?

How do US tariffs impact India’s chemical exports?

Will India benefit from the US tariffs imposed on China?

Table of Contents

Disclaimer

Impact of US Tariffs on India and China’s Chemical Trade

Table of Contents

Key Takeaways

Conclusion

FAQs

How do US tariffs impact India’s chemical exports?

How do US tariffs impact India’s chemical exports?

Will India benefit from the US tariffs imposed on China?

Table of Contents

Disclaimer

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