China's LEI declines for 7th month, CEI signals growth: TCB

The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for China increased by 0.9 per cent in July 2025 to 155.7, after expanding by 1.1 per cent in June. Overall, the Index grew by 3.2 per cent over six-month period from January to July 2025, more than three times the 1 per cent growth observed over the previous six-month period between July 2024 and January 2025, TCB said in a press release.

“The China LEI declined again in July, marking its seventh consecutive monthly drop in 2025. Machinery and transportation equipment imports bolstered the index, but not enough to offset widespread weaknesses among other components. Indeed, 5 out of 8 components weighed negatively on the LEI,” said Timothy Brennan, economic research associate, at The Conference Board.

“Notably, consumer confidence has been depressed since April 2022 and continued to be a major drag on the Index. With the negative semi- and annual growth rates of the LEI pointing to headwinds and with the 6-month diffusion falling below 50, the recession signal went off again in July,” added Brennan. “The 90-day extension of the tariff pause on August 11^th may give China’s economy some temporary relief, but pressure from weak domestic demand, the continuing property downturn, and global uncertainties will persist. As such, The Conference Board currently forecasts annual real GDP growth to slow to 4.7 per cent in 2025 after 5 per cent in 2024.”

LEI provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. Meanwhile, CEI provides an indication of the current state of the economy.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (SG)