Dun & Bradstreet lowers India's GDP forecast to 6.3% for FY26

Dun & Bradstreet has revised India’s GDP growth forecast for fiscal 2026 (FY26) to 6.3 per cent from its earlier estimate of 6.8 per cent, citing rising global uncertainties, US tariff pressures, and persistent trade tensions impacting exports and private investment, according to the company’s latest Economy Observer report.

However, the Reserve Bank of India’s accommodative stance and prospects for further rate cuts are expected to stimulate domestic demand, offering some economic cushion.

Financial markets continue to reflect a softening interest rate environment, with the RBI’s recent policy moves—including a second consecutive 25 basis points rate cut, bringing the repo rate to 6.00 per cent—expected to support liquidity and credit growth.

In the external sector, the rupee showed resilience, strengthening to 86.6 per US dollar in March and projected to appreciate further to 85.8 in April and 85.2 by May. A narrower trade deficit of $12.5 billion in April and net FII inflows of ₹14,670 crore (~$1.76 billion) have boosted investor confidence, reinforcing the rupee’s upward trajectory.

"India's macroeconomic near-term outlook signals cautious optimism, with the RBI steering a delicate balance between growth and macroeconomic stability. Prospects for the manufacturing sector appear strong, with expectations of a shift in demand from US firms moving away from China toward India. Inflation is low because of weak commodity prices, allowing the RBI to cut the repo rate again in April. This will further boost domestic demand, which is already supported by steady rural consumption. India's recovery will hinge on sustained policy support and the stabilisation of the global economic landscape. The path forward, while not without risks, is marked by underlying structural strength and policy agility," Arun Singh, global chief economist, Dun & Bradstreet said.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (HU)