EBRD lifts Turkiye's 2025 growth forecast to 3.1%

The Bank expects the Turkish economy to then grow by 3.5 per cent in 2026, unchanged from the previous forecast. The forecasts were published in the Bank’s Regional Economic Prospects report.

Growth in the EBRD regions (excluding six economies in sub-Saharan Africa and Iraq) is expected to moderate to 3.1 per cent in 2025 as a whole from stronger than expected outturns in the first half of the year, before picking up to 3.3 per cent in 2026. The economies in the EBRD regions remain under pressure from continued global geopolitical tensions, increased competition from China in export markets and limited fiscal space.

Volatile risk sentiment and tighter global financing conditions remain key risks for Turkiye. On the upside, easing tensions in Syria and the Caucasus and closer cooperation with the EU could allow Turkiye to capitalise on its established strengths in construction, logistics and defence, according to the report.

The EBRD invested a record €2.6 billion (~$3.052 billion) in Turkiye in 2024, driven by the private sector’s appetite for green investments and the Bank’s continuing support for regions affected by the February 2023 earthquakes.

The Bank’s cumulative investment in the country stands at over €22.4 billion (~$26.30 billion), with its current portfolio in the country totalling around €8 billion (~$9.39 billion).

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ALCHEMPro News Desk (MS)