GDP in OECD jumps 0.4% QoQ in Q3 2022; exceeds pre-pandemic levels

In Q3 2022, GDP in the OECD area exceeded its pre-pandemic (Q4 2019) level by 3.7 per cent. However, GDP in the United Kingdom was 0.4 per cent below its pre-pandemic level in the third quarter of 2022, following revisions to the historical series, the OECD said in a media release.

Among Group of Seven (G7) countries, GDP grew by 0.6 per cent in the United States in Q3 2022 following contractions in the two previous quarters. GDP growth also increased in Germany (to 0.3 per cent, compared with 0.1 per cent in the previous quarter), but slowed in Italy (0.5 per cent, compared with 1.1 per cent), Canada (0.4 per cent, compared with 0.8 per cent), and France (0.2 per cent, compared with 0.5 per cent). GDP fell in Japan (by -0.3 per cent, compared with growth of 1.1 per cent in the previous quarter) and the United Kingdom (by -0.2 per cent, compared with growth of 0.2 per cent).

For the four G7 countries that have already published detailed preliminary GDP estimates, large movements in international trade were the main factors underlying the third quarter (Q3) 2022 changes. In the United States, net exports (exports minus imports) drove the return to growth, reflecting a 4 per cent increase in goods exports and a drop of 2.3 per cent in goods imports. The United Kingdom saw net exports rise due to a strong increase of goods exports (14.7 per cent) and a 5.0 per cent drop of goods imports; but this was more than offset by a fall in final domestic demand, added the release.

By contrast, in France and Japan, net exports were the main drag on growth. In France, imports increased more than exports in Q3; but final domestic demand, mainly driven by increases in investment and inventory investment (restocking), kept growth positive. In Japan, a decrease in net exports driven by a strong increase in services imports pushed GDP lower.

Of the OECD countries closest to the war in Ukraine, growth in Poland recovered in Q3, with GDP rising by 0.9 per cent, following a contraction of 2.4 per cent in Q2 2022. However, GDP contracted in Latvia (-1.7 per cent), Slovenia (-1.4 per cent), and Hungary (-0.4 per cent).

GDP growth remained unchanged in the Slovak Republic for the fourth quarter in a row (0.3 per cent) and picked up slightly in Lithuania (to 0.4 per cent in Q3 2022, from 0.3 per cent in Q2). Among other OECD countries for which data is available, Mexico recorded the strongest GDP growth (1.8 per cent), followed by Colombia (1.6 per cent) and Norway (1.5 per cent), while GDP contracted in Chile (by -1.2 per cent).

ALCHEMPro News Desk (NB)