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Germany's economic momentum eases as LEI drops 0.5% in August: TCB

18 Oct '25
2 min read
Germany's economic momentum eases as LEI drops 0.5% in August: TCB
Pic: Shutterstock

Insights

  • The Conference Board (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) for Germany declined 0.5 per cent in August 2025 to 87.6, while the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) fell 0.4 per cent to 103.2.
  • TCB economist Allen Li noted that weakening orders and falling consumer confidence signalled slowing momentum, though six-month gains persisted.
  • TCB expects Germany's real GDP to grow 0.3 per cent in 2025.
The Conference Board (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) for Germany fell by 0.5 per cent in August 2025 to 87.6 (2016=100), following a 0.2 per cent decline in July, offering an early signal of softening economic momentum. Despite the recent dips, the LEI still posted a modest 0.3 per cent growth over the six-month period from February to August 2025—the same pace recorded between August 2024 and February 2025.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which measures current economic conditions, dropped by 0.4 per cent in August to 103.2 after remaining unchanged in both July and June. Over the past six months, from February to August 2025, the CEI registered a slight decline of 0.2 per cent, mirroring the rate observed in the previous half-year period, TCB said in a press release.

“The LEI for Germany declined for a second consecutive month in August,” said Allen Li, associate economist at The Conference Board. “The pace of decline accelerated in the month, as new orders for investment goods and new residential construction orders continued to weaken. In addition, consumer confidence worsened as respondents were more worried about geopolitical, economic, and labour market conditions ahead.”

“Yet, despite monthly declines, on a six-month basis, most components of the Germany LEI still progressed. The annual rate of the Index also remained positive, but flattened, suggesting that economic activity will moderate towards the end of year and into 2026. Although the euphoria from stimulus and trade deals are subsiding, these remain major supports for growth. The Conference Board projects real GDP will grow by about 0.3 per cent in 2025 and 1.1 per cent in 2026,” added Li.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (SG)

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