Germany's LEI slips 0.1% in July, six-month growth remains positive

The Conference Board (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) for Germany dipped 0.1 per cent in July 2025 to 88.1 (2016=100), reversing the 0.1 per cent rise seen in June. Despite the monthly decline, the LEI grew 1.1 per cent in the six months from January to July 2025, fully offsetting the 0.5 per cent contraction recorded between July 2024 and January 2025, signalling improved medium-term momentum.

“The LEI for Germany ticked down in July but overall has been quite stable since May. In the month, new orders for investment goods cooled, leading to a significant negative contribution,” said Allen Li, associate economist at The Conference Board.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for Germany held steady at 103.6 in July 2025, after being unchanged in June. Over the January–July 2025 period, the CEI registered a modest 0.2 per cent increase, accelerating from zero growth in the previous six months, TCB said in a release.

“The annual rate of the Index remains on an upward trend, suggesting a potential pickup of economic growth ahead. The announced fiscal stimulus plan should boost the economic outlook going forward, in addition to reduced uncertainty following the US-EU deal. However, overall higher tariffs may continue to add negative pressure on growth. Overall, despite the slight contraction in Q2, the Conference Board currently projects real GDP will grow by about 0.3 per cent in 2025," Li added.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (HU)