India's LEI rises, CEI slumps in May amid mixed economic signals

Over the six-month period from November 2024 to May 2025, the LEI grew by 1.2 per cent—an improvement from the 0.2 per cent increase seen in the prior six months, as per the latest data from The Conference Board.

In contrast, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which reflects current economic conditions, fell sharply by 5.7 per cent in May to 147.6, more than reversing April’s 5.3 per cent gain. The CEI contracted by 2.4 per cent over the latest six-month period, compared to a 0.6 per cent decline in the previous half-year, indicating ongoing weakness in real-time economic performance.

“The LEI for India increased in May, after being heavily revised upward in April. Financial variables drove the Index in May, with the largest positive contribution coming from a second month of rising stock prices. The merchandise export declined in May after surging in April,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Thanks to the two consecutive monthly gains in the leading index, its six-month growth moved higher into positive territory, implying that the growth tailwinds are likely to last in the second half of 2025. Therefore, and taking also into account the stronger than expected gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Q1 and the recent easing of monetary policy, The Conference Board forecasts that India’s real GDP will grow at about 6.3 per cent in 2025, only slightly slower than in 2024.”

ALCHEMPro News Desk (SG)