India's LEI rises for 4th month, GDP growth seen at 6.3%: TCB

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for India increased by 4.7 per cent in July 2025 to 152.2, after falling by 1.4 per cent in June. Despite the large monthly gain, the CEI contracted by 0.7 per cent over the six-month period from January to July 2025 due to substantial losses in February, May, and June. This followed an increase of 2.1 per cent over the previous six-month period between July 2024 and January 2025.

“The LEI for India increased for the fourth consecutive month in July,” said Timothy Brennan, economic research associate, at The Conference Board. “The LEI gains were driven by a strong rebound in merchandise exports, expanded bank credit to the commercial sector, and a widening of the interest rate spread.”

“Notably, merchandise exports grew by 7.29 per cent year-over-year, largely because of accelerated demand from US importers ahead of the implementation of new US tariffs in August. The six-month growth rate strengthened, pointing to solid momentum for the rest of 2025,” added Brennan. “However, ongoing US and India trade talks could weigh on future economic growth if higher tariffs are imposed in response to India’s purchases of Russian oil. The Conference Board currently forecasts that India’s real GDP will grow by 6.3 per cent in 2025, slightly down from 6.7 per cent in 2024.”

ALCHEMPro News Desk (SG)