It's 8.1 percent projected growth for 2005-06, says Economic Survey
27 Feb '06
5 min read
1.3 Against the annual average growth rate of 8.0 per cent envisaged in the Tenth Five Year Plan (2002-03 to 2006-07), the average rate is estimated to have been 7.0 per cent in the first four years ending in 2005-06. Excluding the first year of the Plan (with a much lower growth of 3.8 per cent) results in an average growth rate of 8.0 per cent in the remaining three of the first four years. Maintenance of growth at or above 8 per cent in 2006-07 will yield a plan period annual average growth rate of at least 7.2 per cent.
1.4 The growth trend for the last three years appears to indicate the beginning of a new phase of cyclical upswing in the economy from 2003-04. The initial momentum to this new phase of expansion, in 2003-04, was provided by agriculture. After a somewhat subdued impetus from the farm sector in 2004-05, there is a moderate recovery in agricultural growth in 2005-06 (Table 1.2). This is partly because of a change in the rainfall pattern from erratic to a near-normal distribution.
1.5 In contrast to the sharp fluctuations in agriculture, industry and services have continued to expand steadily. Indeed, since the beginning of the Tenth Plan in 2002-03, with annual growth of 7.0 per cent or more (Table 1.2), industry and services have acted as the twin engines propelling overall growth of the economy. Over a somewhat longer horizon, in the six years between 2000-01 and 2005-06 (AE), on average, services with a share of 52.0 per cent of GDP, contributed 65.0 per cent of GDP growth, and increased its share in GDP from 49.8 per cent to 54.1 per cent. During the same reference period, on average, with a share of 25.8 per cent of GDP, industry, by contributing 28.0 per cent of GDP growth, increased its share in GDP from 25.9 per cent to 26.2 per cent.
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