World trade volume registers 6% growth say WTO economists
11 Apr '06
5 min read
WORLD TRADE 2005, PROSPECTS FOR 2006
Trade picks up in mid-2005, but 2006 picture is uncertain
World trade began 2005 with sluggish growth and then regained momentum to end the year registering 6% growth in the volume of goods traded, WTO economists say.
There are a number of uncertainties on the horizon for 2006, with signs of a stronger investment climate mixed with fragile prospects for consumption and employment, particularly in Europe, they say.
WTO economists predict 7% growth in the volume of goods trade (i.e. in real terms, discounting price changes) and 3.5% growth in the world economy in 2006. A similar pattern can be seen for trade in goods and services measured in dollars even though the numbers are different because of higher energy prices, they say.
“The global trading system is undergoing a period of transition,” said WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy. “Shifting economic circumstances, major advances in technology and the emergence of new players on the global scene all underscore that we are on the cusp of big changes. Persistent imbalances, driven largely by macro-economic factors continue to be a cause for concern in some major economies. In such a climate of uncertainty, one thing is certain, Member governments must strengthen the global trading system by making it more equitable and relevant for those who trade in the 21st century. There can be no doubt that the best way to DO this would be to conclude this year an ambitious agreement in the Doha round of global trade negotiations.”
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