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Philippines' growth to slow in 2025, rebound by 2026: World Bank

15 Dec '25
3 min read
 Philippines' growth to slow in 2025, rebound by 2026: WB
Pic: Shutterstock

Insights

  • The Philippine economy is expected to slow to 5.1 per cent in 2025 due to weak investment, domestic shocks, and soft global demand, but recover to 5.3 per cent in 2026 and 5.4 per cent in 2027, the World Bank says.
  • Strong consumption, easing inflation, and revived infrastructure spending will aid the rebound, while reforms and stronger urban corridors remain key priorities.
The Philippine economy slowed in 2025 as domestic shocks, weaker investment, and soft global demand weighed on growth. However, a modest recovery is expected in 2026–2027, supported by resilient consumption and easing inflation, according to the World Bank’s latest Philippines Economic Update (PEU).

“The Philippines can leverage its strong economic foundations to implement bolder reforms that can unlock faster, more inclusive growth,” said Zafer Mustafaoglu, World Bank division director for the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei. “Removing barriers that limit investment and productivity and strengthening competitiveness can create more and better-paying jobs, expand opportunities, and reinforce economic resilience.”

Growth in the Philippines is forecast to decelerate to 5.1 per cent in 2025, slightly lower than previously forecast, before improving to 5.3 per cent in 2026 and 5.4 per cent in 2027, the World Bank said in a press release.

The 2025 slowdown is driven by lower domestic investment, weak business confidence, a significant decline in foreign direct investment, and domestic shocks—from typhoon- and flood-related disruptions to governance concerns that have delayed public investments.

Growth is expected to recover over the next two years, driven by strong domestic demand. Private consumption is projected to strengthen as inflation stays low, employment remains robust, and monetary easing lowers interest rates, making it easier for businesses and households to borrow. Investment is expected to strengthen as public infrastructure projects regain momentum.

Equally important, the PEU argues that investing in and effectively managing emerging urban corridors is critical as the country advances toward upper-middle-income status. Over 60 per cent of urban local government units (LGUs) across Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao lie at the core of these high-potential corridors, where wage jobs and productive firms are concentrated. For these LGUs to reach their full potential, improved connectivity, targeted investment, and policy support are essential.

“For long-term, sustained growth, the Philippines needs to ensure that low-income and middle-income regions continue to grow faster than the National Capital Region as they have done over the past decade.” said Jaffar Al-Rikabi, World Bank senior economist. “To do that, high-potential urban areas—urban corridors—need to be harnessed as engines of job creation and productivity that generate spillover benefits across the country.”

The Philippines needs to strengthen the overall framework for local service delivery and the capacity of LGUs, which manage about one-quarter of public spending, the report added. Together, these reforms can create a virtuous cycle of investment, productivity, and local revenue growth, accelerating growth and job creation nationwide.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (RR)

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