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US households hold steady inflation outlook; job fears ease in Nov

10 Dec '25
1 min read
 US households hold steady inflation outlook; job fears ease in Nov
Pic: Shutterstock

Insights

  • US households kept their inflation expectations steady across all horizons in November.
  • Labour market sentiment improved, with lower perceived job-loss risk and eased unemployment expectations.
  • However, households reported worsening views of their financial situation despite stable inflation expectations and slightly stronger labour market confidence.

US households kept their inflation expectations unchanged in November 2025, even as concerns over personal finances deepened, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations.

Stable views were recoded across one-, three- and five-year horizons, with median expectations holding at 3.2 per cent, 3 per cent and 3 per cent respectively, according to the survey, conducted from November 1 to 30.

Disagreement among respondents narrowed, and uncertainty about future inflation was unchanged or lower depending on the horizon, the New York Fed said in a release,

Labour market expectations improved modestly. The perceived probability of higher US unemployment a year ahead eased to 42.1 per cent. Job loss concerns fell to 13.8 per cent, the lowest since December 2024, and the expected quit rate dropped to 17.7 per cent, the lowest since February 2025. The probability of finding a job within three months if displaced rose slightly to 47.3 per cent, though it remains below the past year’s average.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (HU)

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