US LEI falls 0.3% in September 2025: The Conference Board

“The US LEI fell again in September, marking a second consecutive decline,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Weakening expectations from consumers and businesses led to an overall contraction in the Index. Subindexes that contributed negatively to the LEI were consumer expectations and ISM New Orders Index, followed by manufacturers' new orders of consumer goods & materials, initial claims for unemployment Insurance (inverted), and the yield curve. However, stock prices, the Leading Credit Index, and manufacturers' new orders of nondefense capital goods excl. aircraft did contribute positively to the Index. The LEI suggests slowing economic activity at the end of 2025 and into early 2026, with GDP weakening after strong mid-year consumer spending and Q4 disruptions amid the federal government shutdown. Overall, growth remains fragile and uneven as businesses adjust to tariff changes and softer consumer momentum. The Conference Board expects GDP to expand by 1.8 per cent in 2025, before falling to 1.5 per cent in 2026.” 

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the US rose by 0.1 per cent in September 2025 to 115.1 (2016=100), following no change in August (downwardly revised from a 0.2 per cent gain). The CEI rose by 0.3 per cent between March and September 2025, down from 1.1 per cent over the previous six months. The CEI’s four component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. Three components of the coincident index improved slightly in September. Manufacturing and trade sales, which was estimated for August and September, was also positive.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the US inched up by 0.1 per cent to 119.6 (2016=100) in September 2025, after also increasing by 0.1 per cent in August. The LAG grew by 0.5 per cent in the six months between March and September 2025, slightly lower than the 0.6 per cent increase over the previous six months.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (RR)