Deficits will total $22.7 trillion (6.1 per cent of GDP) over a decade and rise from $1.7 trillion (5.6 per cent of GDP) in 2025 to $2.6 trillion (5.9 per cent of GDP) in 2035, it projected.
Net interest payments on the national debt will total $14.0 trillion (3.8 per cent of GDP), rising from nearly $1 trillion (3.2 per cent of GDP) in 2025 to $1.8 trillion (4.1 per cent of GDP) in 2035.
Spending will total $88 trillion (23.6 per cent of GDP) over a decade, while revenue will total more than $65 trillion (17.5 per cent of GDP), it estimated.
The estimates were arrived at under the CRFB adjusted August 2025 baseline that runs from fiscal 2025-26 till fiscal 2034-35 and assumes all current tariffs and trade deals remain in effect.
Total deficits are about $1 trillion higher than in the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) January baseline, with debt-to-GDP rising by an extra 2 percentage points, as the high cost of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) is partially offset by new tariffs and other reforms over the first five years and mostly offset in the next five, a CRFB release said.
Under an alternative scenario in which the US Trade Court’s ruling that much of the tariffs are illegal is upheld, temporary provisions of OBBBA are made permanent, and yields on treasury securities remain at their current level, debt will reach 134 per cent of GDP. The total ten-year deficit will exceed $28 trillion, and interest payments will rise to $2.2 trillion by 2035—above 5 per cent of GDP.
The alternative scenario baseline does not incorporate the dynamic effects from OBBBA nor other changes to the economy.
ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)
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