Global cotton output, stocks & consumption raised for 2025-26: WASDE

The 1.43 million bale increase is driven by a 1 million-bale rise in China’s crop, a 600,000-bale increase in the US crop, and a 100,000-bale rise in Mexico’s crop, partially offset by reductions in Pakistan and Egypt.

However, estimates for cotton imports, exports, and beginning stocks have been revised downward.

Global consumption has been raised by 365,000 bales to 118.12 million bales, with increases in Pakistan and Mexico partially offset by reductions in Italy and Germany. Global exports are lowered by 100,000 bales to 44.69 million bales. Beginning stocks for 2025–26 are reduced by 510,000 bales to 76.78 million bales, reflecting lower stock levels in the United States and China and minor adjustments elsewhere.

Ending stocks for 2025–26 are projected at 77.32 million bales, up 520,000 bales from the previous estimate, as higher production more than offsets the increase in consumption and the reduction in beginning stocks.

The July 2025 WASDE report for 2025-26 for the United States also shows higher production and ending stocks, lower beginning stocks, and unchanged consumption and import estimates compared to the June report.

Planted area has been raised to 10.12 million acres, based on the NASS June Acreage report. Harvested area is up by 6 per cent to 8.66 million acres, reflecting both higher planting and lower abandonment in the Southwest, which is partially offset by higher abandonment in the Southeast. The national average yield for 2025–26 is reduced by 1 per cent to 809 pounds per harvested acre, as reduced abandonment in the Southwest leads to the harvesting of more lower-yielding dryland acres.

As the increase in harvested area exceeds the reduction in yield, the production forecast is increased by 600,000 bales compared to June’s projection, reaching 14.60 million bales—up from 14.41 million last year.

Beginning stocks for 2025–26 are lowered by 300,000 bales following a corresponding increase in projected exports for 2024–25. These revisions result in an estimated ending stock of 4.60 million bales for 2025–26, up 300,000 bales from last month, translating to a stocks-to-use ratio of 32.4 per cent. The projected season-average upland price for 2025–26 remains unchanged at 62 cents per pound.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (KUL)