Global cotton production projected at 117.8 mn bales in 2024-25: WASDE

Global consumption is projected to rise by 1.2 per cent to 118.08 million bales, as increases in Bangladesh, India, Turkiye, and Vietnam (collectively a 1.40 million bale increase) more than offset a 500,000-bale decline in China, with smaller changes elsewhere. Global trade is expected to rise by over 5 per cent to 44.83 million bales, as both the United States and Brazil are projected to increase exports by over 1 million bales each. Ending stocks are essentially unchanged from 2024–25 at 78.38 million bales.

In the 2024–25 world balance sheet, production, consumption, and trade have been revised upward from the April forecasts, with beginning stocks virtually unchanged and ending stocks revised downward. Due to excellent early harvest yields, Australia’s projected crop has been raised by 200,000 bales, accounting for much of the increase in production.

Consumption and imports have each been raised by 300,000 bales for both Pakistan and Vietnam, while imports by China have been reduced by 500,000 bales. As a result, ending stocks have been reduced by over 450,000 bales to 78.40 million, for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 67.1 per cent.

The forecast for the current season for US cotton shows a small increase in production, higher exports, higher beginning and ending stocks, and unchanged consumption compared to 2024–25. Planted area is expected to be 9.87 million acres based on the March 31 Prospective Plantings report. With recent precipitation in the Southwest, abandonment is projected to be lower than average, resulting in a US harvested area of 8.37 million acres, higher than the 7.81 million acres harvested in 2024–25.

The national average yield for 2025–26 in the US is projected at 832 pounds per harvested acre, below last year’s 886 pounds, based on regionally weighted five-year averages. Production is projected to be 14.50 million bales, slightly above the 14.41 million bales produced in 2024–25. Exports are projected to rebound to 12.50 million bales, up from 11.10 million, due to larger beginning stocks and higher global import demand. Ending stocks are forecast to be 400,000 bales higher at 5.20 million, resulting in an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 36.6 per cent. The projected season-average price for 2025–26 is 62 cents per pound.

The 2024–25 balance sheet for US cotton reflects a 200,000-bale increase in projected exports to 11.10 million and a crop of 14.41 million bales based on NASS’s final estimate of 2024–25 US cotton production. As a result, ending stocks for 2024–25 are reduced to 4.80 million bales. The projected 2024–25 season-average price remains unchanged at 63 cents per pound.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (KUL)