ICE cotton drops but trims losses on lower US production, inventory

ICE’s most active December 2025 contract settled at 67.47 cents, down 18 points from the previous day. The July 2025 contract settled at 65.14 cents per pound (0.453 kg), down 0.33 cent. Other contracts closed lower, with losses ranging between 7 and 22 points.

ICE futures trading volume stood at 77,062 contracts, slightly lower than the previous day’s 79,946 contracts. However, trading ranges remained narrow, not exceeding 78 points.

According to the June WASDE report, US cotton production in 2025–26 is estimated at 14 million bales, down from 14.5 million bales in May and 14.4 million bales in 2024–25, marking the second-lowest production in the past 10 years. US ending stocks for 2025–26 are projected at 4.3 million bales, sharply reduced from the May estimate of 5.2 million bales.

Global cotton ending stocks for 2025–26 are now estimated at 76.8 million bales, down from the 78.38 million bales projected in May.

Market analysts noted that the substantial cut in US inventories, combined with an unchanged demand outlook, contributed to a bullish tone even as prices declined slightly.

According to the USDA weekly export sales report (for the week ending June 5), net US cotton export sales for the current marketing year were 60,200 bales—a 45 per cent drop from the previous week.

Brazil's IBGE forecast the cotton planted area in 2025 at 2,122,848 hectares, up 4.7 per cent from May and 0.4 per cent above last year’s area. Output is estimated at 9.26 million tons, up 1.7 per cent month-on-month and 4.5 per cent year-on-year. Meanwhile, CONAB’s data shows Brazil’s 2024–25 production at 3.9048 million tons, up 5.5 per cent year-on-year from 3.7013 million tons in 2023–24.

CBOT soybean futures fell to a one-week low due to weak domestic spot prices, sluggish export sales, and concerns over the US biofuel mandate’s impact on oilseed demand.

Presently, ICE cotton for July 2025 is trading at 65.19 cents per pound (up 0.05 cent), cash cotton at 63.39 cents (down 0.33 cent), the October 2025 contract at 65.52 cents (down 0.20 cent), the December 2025 contract at 67.61 cents (up 0.14 cent), the March 2026 contract at 68.86 cents per pound (up 0.07 cent), and the May 2026 contract at 69.96 cents (up 0.09 cent). A few contracts remained at their previous closing levels, with no trading recorded today.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (KUL)