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ICE cotton gains as US-EU pact lifts mood, oil adds support

29 Jul '25
3 min read
ICE cotton gains as US-EU pact lifts mood, oil adds support
Pic: Shutterstock

Insights

  • ICE cotton futures closed higher as a new US-EU trade deal lifted sentiment, though the EU remains a minor buyer of US cotton.
  • Rising crude oil prices also supported cotton by making polyester more expensive.
  • December 2025 cotton held near 68 cents/lb for an eleventh session.
  • USDA rated 55 per cent of US cotton good-to-excellent.
  • Brazil's July exports dropped 19 per cent year-on-year.
ICE cotton futures closed higher on Monday following the announcement of a trade deal between the US and the European Union. The development lifted overall sentiment in the grain market. However, the EU is not a major buyer of US cotton due to its limited spinning capacity. Rising crude oil prices also supported US cotton, as higher oil prices tend to increase the cost of polyester fibre, making cotton relatively more attractive.

ICE’s most active December 2025 contract settled at 68.34 cents per pound (0.453 kg), up 0.11 cent. This marked the eleventh consecutive close around the 68-cent mark, indicating a stable and range-bound market. Other contracts settled 11 to 39 points higher.

Total trading volume reached 28,728 contracts, compared to 24,104 contracts cleared on Friday. ICE deliverable stocks remained unchanged at 21,617 bales as of July 25.

The market responded positively to the newly announced trade agreement between the US and the European Union, reached on July 27. Under the deal, a 15 per cent tariff will be applied to EU goods exported to the US. Despite this, cotton prices remained largely within a narrow range, as the EU is not a key importer of US cotton. However, the overall boost to global sentiment helped lift commodity markets broadly.

Stock markets responded more strongly, with the S&P 500 posting its sixth consecutive closing high and the Nasdaq also setting a record—reflecting a broader appetite for risk.

Market analysts noted that the price uptick was mainly driven by the trade deal, with additional support coming from rising oil prices. NYMEX crude futures rose over 2 per cent on the day, fuelled by the US-EU deal and President Trump’s decision to shorten the 50-day deadline for a resolution between Russia and Ukraine. Higher oil prices typically raise polyester costs, giving cotton a competitive edge.

The weekly USDA Crop Progress Report, released after market close, showed 55 per cent of the US cotton crop rated good-to-excellent—down from 57 per cent the previous week but up from 49 per cent in the same week last year.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex) reported that the country exported 111,707.33 tons of cotton in the first four weeks of July, averaging 5,879.33 tons per day—a 19 per cent decline from last July’s daily average of 7,270.13 tons.

As of the latest session, ICE cotton for December 2025 was trading at 68.23 cents per pound (down 0.11 cent). Cash cotton stood at 66.50 cents (up 0.64 cent). Other contract settlements were: October 2025 at 67.23 cents (down 0.17 cent), March 2026 at 69.63 cents (down 0.13 cent), May 2026 at 70.73 cents (down 0.13 cent), and July 2026 at 71.41 cents (down 0.21 cent). A few contracts remained unchanged, with no trades recorded.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (KUL)

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