ICE cotton gains on trade deal, but weak exports limit rise

ICE’s most active December 2025 contract settled at 68.80 cents per pound (0.453 kg), up 0.24 cent. The contract has gained 138 points this week, indicating a moderate upward trend. Other cotton contracts closed higher, with gains ranging from 16 to 30 points.

However, the stronger US dollar exerted pressure on cotton, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for foreign buyers and thus limiting gains.

Trading volume on July 17 was the lowest recorded in 2025, with only 20,969 contracts traded. The previous day's cleared volume stood at 23,505 contracts, highlighting reduced market participation. According to ICE data, deliverable cotton stocks fell sharply to 23,481 bales on July 16, down from 34,234 bales the previous day, indicating tightening certified supplies.

According to the USDA’s weekly export sales report for the week ending July 10, export sales for the current marketing year were just 5,500 bales—down 93 per cent from the previous week and 89 per cent below the four-week average.

Market analysts noted that the market remains uncertain, with no clear direction, reflecting indecision amid mixed signals.

Positive sentiment stemmed from the US–Indonesia trade talks, where President Trump announced a landmark agreement with President Prabowo, opening Indonesia’s cotton market fully to US exports for the first time.

Currently, ICE cotton for December 2025 is trading at 68.95 cents per pound (up 0.15 cent), cash cotton at 66 cents (up 0.30 cent), the October 2025 contract at 67.25 cents (up 0.30 cent), the March 2026 contract at 70.20 cents (up 0.12 cent), the May 2026 contract at 71.17 cents (up 0.08 cent), and the July 2026 contract at 71.93 cents (up 0.12 cent). A few contracts remained at their previous closing levels, with no trading recorded today.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (KUL)