ICE cotton hovers near 5-month low on US government shutdown

ICE’s most active December 2025 contract settled at 65.77 cents per pound (0.453 kg), up 0.27 cent or 0.40 per cent, marking its weakest level since April 2025. The contract lost 77 points in September, its third consecutive monthly decline. It is now down 393 points year-to-date, with the seventh monthly loss in 2025. The March 2026 contract closed at 67.57 cents with a gain of 0.13 cent, and May at 68.86 cents with a gain of 0.09 cent, while other contracts rose between 9 and 27 points.

Trading volume was strong at 57,532 contracts, compared with 48,138 contracts cleared the previous day. ICE-certified deliverable stocks were unchanged at 15,474 bales as of September 29.

USDA crop progress showed 47 per cent of US cotton rated good to excellent, steady with the previous week and well above 31 per cent a year ago. The US cotton harvest advanced to 16 per cent complete, compared with 12 per cent last week, 19 per cent last year, and a five-year average of 16 per cent.

September market performance was mixed, but the most active contracts remained under selling pressure, with December leading the weakness.

Analysts noted that the market is on edge over a possible US government shutdown, which would halt USDA and economic data releases, including the non-farm payrolls report. “We don’t know what the actual demand is,” one analyst said, adding to trader uncertainty. The US’ 15^th shutdown since 1981 raises fears of suspended demand and trade data just as the harvest accelerates.

Traders are awaiting the USDA weekly export sales report on Thursday for fresh demand cues, while global macroeconomic concerns continue to weigh on cotton prices.

Currently, ICE cotton for December 2025 is trading at 65.72 cents per pound (down 0.05 cent), cash cotton at 63.77 cents (up 0.27 cent), the October 2025 contract at 63.32 cents (up 0.27 cent), the March 2026 contract at 67.57 cents (unchanged), the May 2026 contract at 68.85 cents (down 0.01 cent) and the July 2026 contract at 69.86 cents (down 0.04 cent). A few contracts remained at their previous closing levels, with no trading recorded today.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (KUL)