ICE cotton rises on bargain buys, USDA boosts output forecast

ICE’s most active December 2025 contract settled at 68.12 cents per pound (0.453 kg), up 0.70 cent or 1.04 per cent. The contract traded within an 84-point range, between 67.36 and 68.20 cents. Over the past six sessions, it has remained within a 124-point range. Other cotton contracts closed with gains ranging from 21 to 65 points.

Crude oil prices declined slightly, weighing on the broader commodity complex.

Trading volume stood at 28,671 contracts on July 14, compared to 25,669 contracts on July 12. The average daily volume last week was 28,342 contracts. Certificated cotton stocks declined by 824 bales to 34,509 bales due to decertification on Friday.

Market analysts noted that cotton prices are rising due to oversold conditions following USDA data, with additional support from gains in grain markets. Cotton is likely to remain within the range of 67 to 68.5 cents per pound.

The USDA’s July WASDE report projected US 2025–26 cotton ending stocks at 4.6 million bales, an increase of 300,000 bales from June. Production is estimated at 14.6 million bales, up 600,000 from last month and higher than 2024’s 14.4 million bales. Demand remains unchanged, making the report neutral to bearish.

Speculators increased their net short positions in ICE cotton futures and options by 1,746 contracts, reaching 56,887 contracts as of July 8, according to CFTC data.

Chicago wheat, corn, and soybean markets recovered on bargain buying after Friday’s sharp decline, which also supported sentiment in the cotton market.

According to the USDA Crop Progress Report released on July 15, 54 per cent of the cotton crop was rated in good/excellent condition, up from 52 per cent last week and 45 per cent a year ago. Squaring reached 61 per cent (5-year average: 62 per cent), while setting bolls was at 23 per cent (5-year average: 22 per cent).

Currently, ICE cotton for December 2025 is trading at 68.04 cents per pound (down 0.08 cent), cash cotton at 65.16 cents (up 0.21 cent), the October 2025 contract at 66.46 cents (up 0.05 cent), the March 2026 contract at 69.26 cents (down 0.14 cent), the May 2026 contract at 70.34 cents (down 0.05 cent), and the July 2026 contract at 70.97 cents (down 0.18 cent). A few contracts remained at their previous closing levels, with no trades recorded today.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (KUL)