Home breadcru News breadcru Cotton breadcru ICE cotton slips amid better weather in Texas, export uncertainty

ICE cotton slips amid better weather in Texas, export uncertainty

09 Apr '25
3 min read
ICE cotton slips amid better weather in Texas, export uncertainty
Pic: Shutterstock

Insights

  • ICE cotton futures declined due to improved weather in West Texas and global trade tensions, which have heightened uncertainty around US cotton exports.
  • Traders are monitoring warm, dry forecasts favourable for planting, while global demand remains uncertain despite strong buying from Vietnam.
  • Grain markets rose on supply concerns.
  • USDA export data and upcoming WASDE reports are awaited.
ICE cotton futures declined on Tuesday due to improved weather conditions and external market factors. Favourable weather in the western plains, particularly in West Texas, has improved the cotton crop outlook. Trade tensions have also increased uncertainty regarding the outlook for US cotton exports.

On Tuesday, the ICE cotton May 2025 contract settled at 65.55 cents per pound (0.453 kg), up 0.44 cent.

Traders are focusing on new crop potential as weather forecasts indicate warm and dry conditions, ideal for early planting. Analysts noted that these improved weather conditions are triggering bearish sentiment.

Uncertainty also persists over global cotton demand, which is keeping prices in check. Trade tensions between major economies are further complicating the export outlook. Although global demand appears soft, strong buying from Vietnam has been a supportive factor. Vietnam has imported more than 1.4 million bales of US Upland cotton so far in the 2025–26 marketing year, making it the top importer. The US remains one of the key suppliers of high-quality Upland cotton to Asian textile industries.

USDA weekly export sales data is awaited and may offer clearer insights into short-term demand.

As of April 7, 2025, certificated stock for ICE’s No. 2 cotton contract remained unchanged at 14,488 bales, indicating stable supply levels in exchange warehouses.

In the grain markets, corn and wheat continued their upward trend, reaching near two-week highs amid supply concerns. Soybean prices also rebounded, supported by a broader recovery in financial markets and technical buying.

The S&P 500 index fell sharply, closing below 5,000 for the first time in nearly a year, adding some pressure to commodity sentiment.

Analysts are closely watching economic indicators and global equity trends for potential spillover effects into cotton and other agricultural commodities.

Overall, cotton traders remain cautious due to a mix of bearish weather developments, demand-side uncertainty, and macroeconomic instability. Market participants are also monitoring the upcoming World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report and weather models for further direction.

Currently, ICE cotton for May 2025 is trading at 64.47 cents per pound (down 1.08 cents), cash cotton at 63.30 cents (down 0.44 cent), the July 2025 contract at 65.06 cents (down 1.27 cents), the October 2025 contract at 68.02 cents (down 0.67 cent), the December 2025 contract at 66.67 cents (down 1.08 cents), and the March 2026 contract at 67.80 cents per pound (down 1.05 cent). A few contracts remain at their last closing levels, with no trading recorded today.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (KUL)

Get Free Weekly Market Insights Newsletter

Receive daily prices and market insights straight to your inbox. Subscribe to AlchemPro Weekly!