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India cotton production to decline to 295L bales, may touch 15-yr low

01 Nov '23
2 min read
Pic: Adobe Stock
Pic: Adobe Stock

Insights

  • CAI forecasts a 7.49 per cent decline in cotton production for the 2023-24 season, marking the lowest yield since 2008-09.
  • The estimate of 295.1 lakh bales falls short of the government's projection and last year's 318.9 lakh bales.
  • Factors such as a 5.5 per cent decrease in cultivated area and poor weather conditions contribute to the drop.
India's cotton production for the 2023-24 marketing season (October-September) is forecast to decline by 7.49 per cent, reaching 295.1 lakh bales, according to the Cotton Association of India (CAI). This downturn marks the lowest level since the 2008-09 season and comes on the heels of last year's production of 318.9 lakh bales. CAI attributes the fall to a reduction in planted area and lower productivity due to unfavourable weather conditions. 

This estimate indicates a 7.49 per cent reduction from the 318.9 lakh bales produced in the 2022-23 marketing season, falling short of the government's projection of 316.5 lakh bales for 2023-24.  

According to the CAI's initial assessment, this represents the lowest cotton yield in India since the 2008-09 season. The decline is attributed to a 5.5 per cent decrease in total cultivated area and an anticipated yield drop of up to 20 per cent, due to unfavourable weather conditions associated with El Nino. 

For the 2023-24 season, the CAI's regional projections include 85 lakh bales from Gujarat, 76 lakh bales from Maharashtra, 30 lakh bales from Telangana, 18.5 lakh bales from Karnataka, 18 lakh bales from Madhya Pradesh, and 16 lakh bales from Haryana. 

As of the beginning of the new 2023-24 season in October 2023, the opening stock was reported to be 28.9 lakh bales. The estimated cotton imports and exports for the current season are 22 lakh bales and 14 lakh bales, respectively. 

The CAI has stated that domestic demand for cotton in 2023-24 is expected to be around 311 lakh bales, resulting in a surplus of approximately 35 lakh bales. 

ALCHEMPro News Desk (KUL)

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