India's duty-free cotton imports may double by December 2025

ICE cotton for October 2025 delivery is hovering around 65 US cents per pound. The December contract is trading at 66.54 cents, but could drop to 63 cents, which would pressure the global market. Meanwhile, Brazilian exporters are offering cotton 4–6 cents cheaper than US cotton, supported by a bumper new crop expected at 235 lakh bales, according to market sources.

If December ICE falls to 63 cents per pound, Indian mills could import Brazilian cotton at 71–72 cents per pound (including expenses), translating into ₹49,000–50,000 per candy of 356 kg.

In contrast, Indian cotton is hovering at ₹54,000–55,000 per candy. As a result, Indian textile mills are expected to favour Brazilian imports. Total imports may reach 50–70 lakh bales by year-end. India’s cotton marketing season begins in October, but the government has allowed duty-free imports until December 2025, covering the first quarter of the 2025-26 season.

Chetan Bhojani, of Morbi (Gujarat)-based Shree Gita Ginning & Oil Industries, told Fibre2Fashion, “If price dynamics remain the same until the end of the year, India’s imports may reach 70 lakh bales during the current season and the first quarter of the next. Indian mills will prefer imported cotton over domestic supplies.”

He explained that the government has already raised the minimum support price (MSP) to ₹7,710 per quintal for the next season. Ginned cotton will cost around ₹63,000 per candy of 356 kg based on this MSP, with 35 per cent fibre recovery and an average seed price of ₹3,000 per quintal. Such high costs make Indian cotton unviable compared to cheaper imports. This will also discourage private ginning, as the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) will procure seed cotton at the MSP when the new season begins.

The Cotton Association of India (CAI), in its latest report, estimated cotton imports for the 2024-25 season at 39 lakh bales, 23.80 lakh bales higher than last season’s 15.20 lakh bales. By the end of July 2025, about 33 lakh bales were estimated to have arrived at Indian ports.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (KUL)