The U.S. cotton estimates for 2006/07 include a larger
supply and lower demand compared with last month. Beginning
stocks are raised 100,000 bales based on the Census Bureau's final estimate of ending stocks for the 2005/06 season.
Production for 2006/07 is raised 1.5 percent from the September estimate, with increases mainly in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Domestic mill use is reduced 200,000 bales based on declining rates in recent months. The export estimate is also reduced 200,000 bales due to
lower world import demand. Ending stocks for 2006/07 are 17
percent higher this month but are 11 percent below 2005/06.
Larger supplies and lower consumption are boosting projected
2006/07 world cotton stocks by 12 percent compared with last
month. Beginning stocks are raised 5 percent based on a
reassessment of 2005/06 ending stocks in China. World production for 2006/07 is 1 percent higher as increases for China, Uzbekistan, and the United States are partially offset by reductions for Australia and Iran. World consumption is reduced 1 percent from last month due to decreases for China and the United States. Analysis of China's current supply situation has resulted in lower estimates of consumption and further adjustments in the residual factor for both 2005/06 and 2006/07 (see
http://www.fas.usda.gov/cotton/circular/early/Table1.pdf after 9 a.m. EDT on October 12 for details). World trade is reduced nearly 2 percent due mainly to lower China import demand; accordingly, exports are reduced in several countries, but raised in Uzbekistan.
While the world stocks forecast is significantly above last month, stocks are still forecast to fall nearly 5 percent from the beginning level.
This month's 2005/06 U.S. cotton supply and demand reflect
revisions based on final estimates by the Census Bureau, including increases in exports, ending stocks, and the unaccounted category.
Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees, USDA, USA
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