Among foreign consumers, the largest gains are anticipated in China (4 million bales higher), India (1.8 million), and Pakistan (1 million). China is expected to account for 70 percent of the 2005/06 global consumption increase and, at 42.5 million bales, China's share of world cotton consumption will surpass 37 percent.
Foreign exports are projected to rise 20 percent to 24.6 million bales, or 60 percent of global trade in 2005/06. Foreign imports are forecast at nearly 41.4 million bales, 26 percent above a year earlier.
US cotton production in 2005/06 is projected at 23.2 million bales, slightly below the 2004/05 record of approximately 23.3 million. This season's near-record crop is the result of very good growing conditions and an increase in area of nearly 4 percent.
U.S. cotton exports in 2005/06 are projected to reach a remarkable 16.2 million bales, 1.8 million above 2004/05 and a record. With record foreign cotton imports expected this season, the United States-with back-to-back 23-million-bale crops-has large exportable supplies of cotton again this season to help supply the foreign import demand associated with rising global cotton consumption.
Despite the expectation of record shipments, the US share of global trade is forecast to decline slightly to below 40 percent, similar to the 2002/03 level. US cotton mill consumption is forecast at only 6 million bales in 2005/06, 500,000 bales below the previous sea son and the lowest since 1984/85.
Washington (DC) based The Economic Research Service (ERS) is the main source of economic information and research from the US Department of Agriculture. The organization with approximately 450 employees, the mission of ERS is to inform and enhance public and private decisionmaking on economic and policy issues related to agriculture, food, natural resources, and rural development.
Economic Research Service
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