The Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics - CEPEA/ESALQ Index for cotton registered on May 4 the highest oscillation ever verified by Cepea for commodity: a decrease of 14.4%. In only one day, the product devalued 40 cents of real per pound. As a result, between April 29 to May 13, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for cotton type 41-4 (delivered in São Paulo city, payment in 8 days) moved down 25.36%, to close at 2.1909 reais or 1.3416 dollar per pound on May 13.
The nearness of the season and drops in import and export parities played an important role in pushing down quotes. Purchasers have been more prudent in their acquisitions since March. As a result, sellers were more flexible when selling off batches of the 2009/10 season.
The pace of trades stepped up in early May. However, the volume traded was still not expressive.
In both Brazilian and international markets, recent drops were influenced by refrained purchasers. Because of highs observed in previous months, values reached levels that hindered trades. These price changes are a process to adjust to levels that are attractive for purchasers and profitable for producers.
According to data from ICAC (International Cotton Advisory Committee), the demand for cotton in the 2010/11 season might remain stable compared to the 2009/10 season, at 25.1 million tons. For the 2011/12 season, a small growth is expected, amounting 25.8 million tons.
Icac also forecasts an increase of 11% in the production, hitting a record of 27.6 million tons in 2011/12. The above-the-demand world production will favor ending stocks to increase to 10.1 million tons (ICAC).
CEPEA - Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics
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