India's e-commerce festive sales to cross $13.06 bn GMV: Redseer

India's festive economy in 2025 is shaping up to be one of the strongest in the last few years, powered by macro tailwinds and structural shifts that go beyond the headline growth numbers.

According to this report, Redseer predicts, dual-peak phenomenon this year. With GST slab simplification (5 per cent and 18 per cent replacing 12 per cent and 28 per cent) likely to roll out around Diwali, consumers are expected to stagger certain purchases. High-ticket categories such as appliances may see deferment until post-Diwali, creating a second wave of demand later in the year. For brands and platforms, this means planning not just for one spike, but two.

Quick commerce, projected to grow at ~150 per cent y-o-y (or even more) during the festive period, is becoming the default for impulse-driven, festive gifting and daily top-ups. On the other hand, value commerce, growing at 30-35 per cent y-o-y this calendar year, is pulling in mass consumers by offering depth and breadth in affordable assortments. These explosive growth trends are expected to sustain and even get better in this festive period. While these two ends are likely to reshape festive purchase behaviour more rapidly, the legacy horizontals will continue to drive the bulk of the purchase.

Category dynamics are also evolving. Fashion, beauty, and home are sustaining >20 per cent growth, but grocery is set to outperform, driven by quick commerce. Meanwhile, mobiles and electronics will still dominate festive volumes, but it's home & general merchandise in Tier 2+ cities that could surprise as one of the fastest risers.

"E-commerce festive 2025 is projected to be the best in the last 5 years, but will not be business-as-usual. With a dual-peak demand curve and the rapid rise of quick and value commerce, this year's playbook is fundamentally different. Brands that plan beyond just the pre-Diwali week—tailoring strategies for both impulse and affordability—will capture outsized share," said Kushal Bhatnagar, associate partner at Redseer Strategy Consultants.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (RR)