External risks from US tariffs for the greater China region have subsided, though uncertainties persist and escalation in tensions between the US and China cannot be ruled out. The region shook off US tariffs in 2025, with external demand a key growth driver. Recent trade deals with the US provide more clarity on trade, and ease the risks. However, we see a moderation of export performance in 2026 as the effects of export front-loading unwind and the pace of AI-related investments might slow.
The company expects growth to slow, but remain healthy, in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao. Taiwan is seeing considerable tailwinds from semiconductor exports that should be sustained for part of 2026 amid some weakness in domestic demand. Fitch Ratings forecasts Taiwan’s growth to moderate to 2.5 per cent in 2026 from a robust 6.1 per cent in 2025. A pick-up in fundraising activity in Hong Kong is driving a recovery in domestic consumption, which should support solid growth of 2.8 per cent. Macao continues to see a normalisation in tourism flows supporting growth of 4.0 per cent.
ALCHEMPro News Desk (RR)
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