EU economic sentiment steady, hiring outlook strengthens in November

The ESI remained nearly unchanged as stronger confidence in retail trade was almost entirely offset by weaker sentiment in industry. Consumer confidence was broadly stable at -0.1, with slightly better views on the general economic outlook countered by a small decline in households’ assessments of their past financial situation.

Across major EU economies, sentiment improved in Spain by 2.0 points, Italy by 1.1 points, France by 0.8 points and Poland by 0.5 points, while remaining broadly unchanged in Germany and the Netherlands, both down by 0.3 points. Expectations regarding households’ future financial situation and intentions to make major purchases saw little movement.

Sectoral indicators showed mixed trends. Retail trade confidence rose by 1.1 points due to a significantly better assessment of the past business situation, though this was partly offset by weaker expectations for the months ahead. Selling price expectations rose in industry and retail trade remaining above long-term averages across all sectors.

The Economic Uncertainty Indicator fell slightly in November, down 0.5 points to 18.1, as businesses reported reduced uncertainty about their future situation, even though consumers felt more uncertain about their financial outlook.

Labour market indicators were mixed. The EEI’s rise reflected more optimistic hiring plans in retail trade, although hiring intentions slipped slightly in industry, and consumers’ unemployment expectations were largely steady. The EU Labour Hoarding Indicator declined marginally by 0.2 points to 9.1, moving slightly further below its long-term average.

Consumers’ price expectations for the next year rose slightly in November, while perceptions of price developments over the past year eased somewhat, though both indicators remain elevated.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (CG)