IMF lifts China's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 5%

The team also lifted its China growth projection for 2026 to 4.5 per cent—a rise of 0.3 percentage points from the October forecast.

The upgrade followed the conclusion of the IMF's 2025 Article IV Consultation mission to China.

It recognised China's recent moves to bolster consumption-led growth, including expansionary fiscal policies, monetary easing and targeted steps to support consumption and the property sector.

A more forceful policy package would provide additional lift to China's GDP.

“China’s economy has shown notable resilience despite facing multiple shocks in recent years….This resilience is being tested by continued imbalances. The prolonged property sector adjustment, spillovers to local government finances, and subdued consumer confidence have led to weak domestic demand and deflationary pressures,” Jain-Chandra said in an IMF statement.

“Low inflation relative to trading partners has led to real exchange rate depreciation, contributing to strong exports and supporting growth, but also exacerbating external imbalances, with the current account surplus projected to reach 3.3 per cent of GDP in 2025. China’s large economic size and heightened global trade tensions make reliance on exports less viable for sustaining robust growth,” she added.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)