UOB raises Vietnam's 2026 GDP growth forecast to 7.5% from 7%

The Singapore-based bank’s latest economic outlook report for the country said real GDP expanded by 8.46 per cent year on year (YoY) in the fourth quarter (Q4) last year, accelerating from 8.25 per cent in Q3.

The robust performance was primarily driven by resilient export activity and steady manufacturing despite the adverse impact of US tariffs.

The country’s GDP grew by around 8 per cent last year, beating UOB’s forecast of 7.7 per cent, but still falling short of the government’s target of 8.3-8.5 per cent, which would have needed an extraordinary boost in the final quarter.

Exports continued to be the main engine of growth. In the fourth quarter of 2025, export turnover rose by 19 per cent YoY, while full-year exports increased by 17 per cent, despite tariffs.

The processing and manufacturing sector also expanded strongly by 11.3 per cent in Q4 2025 compared to 10 per cent a year earlier, lifting full-year growth in the sector to 10.5 per cent.

However, UOB also cautioned about several downside risks to the outlook. These include a high base effect, the possibility of export growth moderating after a period of rapid expansion and prolonged uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies.

The country is vulnerable to external trade shocks and UOB believes the country’s central bank has limited room for further policy easing, a domestic media outlet reported.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)