Vietnam interbank rates seen easing as credit growth cools

Economic momentum remained strong at the end of 2025, with real GDP expanding 8.4 per cent year on year (YoY) in the fourth quarter, the fastest pace in several years. Growth was driven by robust export-oriented industrial production. Credit growth surged to 19.4 per cent YoY by December, well above deposit growth of 14 per cent, SBV said in a release.

While Vietnam enters 2026 on a positive footing after achieving an estimated 8 per cent growth in 2025, external risks remain significant for the export-driven economy. Goods exports to the US, which account for around 30 per cent of the total, face the lagged impact of 20 per cent reciprocal tariffs, uncertainty over transshipment duties, and the risk of additional sectoral measures, including possible semiconductor levies.

Monetary authorities have signalled a cautious policy stance for 2026 despite an official GDP growth target of 10 per cent, which analysts view as difficult to achieve. Growth is expected to moderate to around 6.5 per cent, while the SBV has set a lower credit growth target of 15 per cent to limit overheating and resource misallocation risks.

The refinancing rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.50 per cent, though the possibility of an unexpected rate hike cannot be ruled out if liquidity strains persist.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (HU)