Vietnam targets 9% GDP growth in 2026 on investment surge

The report highlighted public investment, particularly in large-scale infrastructure, as the central growth driver. Accelerated spending is expected to ease structural bottlenecks, improve connectivity and crowd in private capital, supporting a broader-based expansion across key sectors. This momentum is seen as setting a strong foundation for the opening phase of Vietnam’s emerging ‘National Rise’ period.

“Vietnam's stock market follows predictable cycles that suggest continued growth through early 2026. Based on cycle analyses and seasonal patterns, the upward trend should persist through February 2026, followed by brief consolidation before resuming growth toward the 2,000-point target by October 2026,” said Jonathan Won, manager at Investment Banking, KIS Vietnam Securities Corp in a LinkedIn post.

Domestic demand is forecast to remain a key growth anchor, underpinned by supportive fiscal policies and stable household consumption.

KIS Research estimates that public investment will surge 49.3 per cent year on year (YoY) in 2026 to VND1.1 quadrillion (~$41.84 billion). The increase will be driven by capital carried over from 2025 alongside an expanded investment programme for the year ahead. Streamlined approval mechanisms for key growth engines have improved execution capacity for large projects, while strong tax revenues and low public debt—at around 36-37 per cent of GDP, well below the 60 per cent ceiling—provide significant fiscal headroom for higher spending.

On the external front, exports are projected to rise 17.1 per cent YoY to $549.7 billion in 2026. A relatively competitive reciprocal tariff rate of about 12.6 per cent is expected to redirect orders towards Vietnam from markets facing steeper trade barriers. Export prospects are further supported by a favourable global environment, with strong stimulus measures and recovering consumer demand in the US likely to provide additional tailwinds.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (SG)