The Conference Board ETI shows slower US job growth likely to continue

Turning points in the index indicate that a change in the trend of job gains or losses is about to occur in the coming months.

“The ETI ticked down slightly in October and has been on a declining trend since it reached its peak in March 2022," said Selcuk Eren, senior economist at the US think tank, in a release.

“While changes have been minimal month to month and the index remains elevated, there are signs of cooling as recent job gains have been mostly concentrated in industries facing major labour shortages including in-person services and government. If labour markets continue cooling and wage growth slows further, the Federal Reserve may be done with interest rate hikes for the current tightening cycle,” he said.

Transportation and warehousing continued shedding jobs in October and employment in the manufacturing industry has been stagnant over the last year, he added.

October’s ETI decrease was driven by negative contributions from six of eight components: ratio of involuntarily part-time to all part-time workers, real manufacturing and trade sales, industrial production, job openings, initial claims for unemployment insurance, and percentage of firms with positions not able to fill right now.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)