ICE cotton stays bearish despite minor gains, weekly losses persist

ICE March 2026 cotton futures settled at 63.85 cents per pound, up 0.11 cents, after touching a low of 63.11 cents and registering a weekly loss of 0.28 cent. December 2025, March, May and July 2026 contracts all hit new intraday lows as broader market pressure continued. December 2025 ended at 61.35 cents, down 0.33 cent. Other contracts closed between 4 and 29 points higher. On a weekly basis, December 2025 was down 114 points, while May 2026 declined 28 points.

A stronger US dollar added pressure by making dollar-denominated cotton more expensive for overseas buyers, reducing price competitiveness.

Session volume reached 35,770 contracts compared with 35,679 contracts in the previous session. The weekly average volume for November 17–21 reached 50,935 contracts due to heavier trading on Monday and Tuesday. December 2025 open interest began at just 145 contracts, and 59 notices were issued, marking the lowest first-notice-day open interest in at least 12 years.

Market sentiment remained weak, with analysts warning that current cotton prices are unsustainable for US growers, as they are below production costs.

Although a minor rebound was seen, analysts noted that the market is likely to remain in a downtrend in both the short and long term, with potential support around 63–65 cents but no strong positive drivers yet.

Traders now await next week’s two export sales reports, scheduled on Tuesday and Friday following delays due to the US government shutdown. ICE certified stock remained unchanged at 20,344 bales, while CBOT soybeans rebounded after three days of losses.

Final settlements showed ICE cotton for December 2025 at 61.35 cents per pound (down 0.33 cent), cash cotton at 61.85 cents (up 0.11 cent), the March 2026 contract at 63.85 cents (up 0.11 cent), the May 2026 contract at 65.07 cents (up 0.07 cent), the July 2026 contract at 66.18 cents (up 0.07 cent) and the October 2026 contract at 67.22 cents (up 0.07 cent).

ALCHEMPro News Desk (KUL)