Annual retail sales in US to grow by 6-8% to $4.86 trn in 2022: NRF

Non-store and online sales year-over-year, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow between 11 per cent and 13 per cent to a range of $1.17 trillion to $1.19 trillion as consumers continue to utilise e-commerce.

“NRF expects retail sales to increase in 2022, as consumers are ready to spend and have the resources to do so,” NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said. “We should see durable growth this year given consumer confidence to continue this expansion, notwithstanding risks related to inflation, COVID-19 and geopolitical threats.”

The 2022 figure compares with 14 per cent annual growth rate in 2021, the highest growth rate in more than 20 years. This year’s sales forecast is notably above the 10-year, pre-pandemic growth rate of 3.7 per cent, the federation said in its annual forecast.

NRF anticipates strong job and wage growth and declining unemployment. The organisation projects full-year GDP growth will be slower this year, around 3.5 per cent, given the surge of inflation and tightening of monetary policy and less fiscal stimulus.

Retail sales are expected to remain strong as the economy opens further in the coming months, but there is considerable uncertainty this year that NRF will continue to monitor closely.

“Most households have never experienced anything like this level of inflation, and it is expected to remain elevated well into 2023,” NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “In addition to inflation, the forces impacting the economy include COVID-19 impacts, international tensions and policy variability.”

Kleinhenz added that although a roller coaster ride of incoming data is expected in the next few months, consumer fundamentals remain in place. Household finances are healthy and strong job and wage growth should support solid growth for consumer spending for 2022.

The announcement was made during NRF’s annual State of Retail and the Consumer virtual event where retail industry leaders discussed the strength of the consumer economy and the future of retail.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (KD)