China's leading index falls again in May, but recession risks ease

The continued decline was attributed to weakening consumer expectations, a soft logistics prosperity index, and a drop in new export orders.

“The China LEI decreased again in May. Much like previous months, the main drivers of the decline in the LEI were weaknesses in consumer expectations, the logistics prosperity index, and new export orders. Both the semi-annual and annual growth rates of the LEI remained negative, continuing to suggest challenges ahead,” said Malala Lin, economic research associate at The Conference Board. “However, the 6-month growth rate has become less negative and no longer signalled recession risks since February 2025, despite the persisting weakness among the underlying components of the LEI.”

“Furthermore, it is expected that the de-escalation of the China-US tariffs tensions and the implemented monetary policies will help mitigate risks to growth going forward. Overall, The Conference Board currently forecasts annual real GDP growth to remain resilient, between 4.5 per cent to 5 per cent in 2025,” added Lin.

In contrast, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI), which reflects current economic conditions, rose by 0.4 per cent in May to 152.8. This follows a sharp 0.8 per cent drop in April. The CEI grew 0.9 per cent between November 2024 and May 2025—substantially slower than the 3 per cent gain observed in the prior six-month period.

Despite ongoing weakness in key sectors, The Conference Board maintains a cautiously optimistic forecast, projecting China’s real GDP growth to remain resilient at between 4.5 and 5 per cent for 2025.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (SG)