Deloitte projects 2025 US holiday sales growth at 2.9–3.4%

Holiday retail sales in the US are forecast to grow between 2.9 per cent and 3.4 per cent in 2025, Deloitte said in its annual holiday retail forecast. The firm projects total sales of $1.61–$1.62 trillion for the November–January period, compared with $1.57 trillion last year when sales grew 4.2 per cent, according to the US Census Bureau.

E-commerce is expected to remain a major driver of growth, with Deloitte forecasting online sales to rise by 7–9 per cent year-over-year to $305–$310.7 billion. This compares with an 8 per cent growth last season when online sales reached an estimated $285 billion. Deloitte’s forecast excludes automotive and gasoline sales and is seasonally adjusted.

The report highlights a slowdown in overall growth compared to 2024 but signals continued resilience in consumer spending, with digital channels playing an increasingly central role in shaping holiday performance.

"We anticipate disposable personal income (DPI), a key driver of retail sales, to grow between 3.1 per cent to 5.4 per cent this holiday season. Steady growth in income can help offset some economic uncertainty, including any labour market weakness and the burden of high credit card and student debt on consumer spending. While elevated inflation will likely weigh on the volume of retail sales growth, it will nevertheless be a tailwind for the dollar value spent on retail purchases in the holiday season," said Akrur Barua, economist, Deloitte Insights.

"We expect this holiday season to demonstrate the resiliency of consumers as they continue to face economic uncertainty. Our forecast anticipates that e-commerce sales will stay strong as consumers keep leveraging online deals to stretch their spending power. Retailers who remain focused on delivering value throughout the season have a prime opportunity to drive growth during what continues to be a critical time for their businesses," according to Natalie Martini, vice chair, Deloitte, and US retail and consumer products leader.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (HU)