Early shopping, tariff concerns drive US back-to-school trends: NRF

As of early July, 67 per cent of shoppers had already begun buying items for the upcoming school year—the highest rate since NRF began tracking early shopping in 2018 and a sharp increase from 55 per cent last year.

The early shopping trend is largely influenced by economic uncertainty, with 51 per cent of back-to-school families starting earlier specifically due to fears of price hikes caused by tariffs.

Despite the early momentum, 84 per cent of consumers reported having at least half of their shopping still left to complete. The primary reasons for holding off include waiting for better deals (47 per cent), uncertainty about required items (39 per cent), and spreading out budgets over time (24 per cent).

Retailer-led summer sales events such as Amazon Prime Day, Walmart Deals and Target Circle Week are playing a pivotal role, with 82 per cent of shoppers timing purchases around these promotions, NRF said in a release.

“Consumers are being mindful of the potential impacts of tariffs and inflation on back-to-school items, and have turned to early shopping, discount stores and summer sales for savings on school essentials. As shoppers look for the best deals on clothes, notebooks and other school-related items, retailers are highly focused on affordability and making the shopping experience as seamless as possible,” said NRF vice president of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen.

For K–12 students, families expect to spend an average of $858.07 this year—slightly below 2024’s $874.68. Nonetheless, increased participation is projected to push total K–12 spending to $39.4 billion, up from $38.8 billion last year.

Spending is led by electronics at an average of $295.81 per household ($13.6 billion total), followed by clothing and accessories ($249.36 or $11.4 billion), shoes ($169.13 or $7.8 billion), and school supplies ($143.77 or $6.6 billion). Online remains the top shopping channel (55 per cent), followed by department stores (48 per cent), discount retailers (47 per cent), and clothing stores (41 per cent).

College shoppers are also scaling back per-person budgets—$1,325.85 on average, down from $1,364.75 in 2024. However, broader participation means total back-to-college spending is forecast to hit a record $88.8 billion, up from $86.6 billion.

“This increase can largely be attributed to higher income households, while lower income households are pulling back across categories because of economic uncertainty. Regardless of income, families want to ensure their students are set up for success. They are cutting back in other areas, using buy now, pay later or buying used or refurbished items to have everything they need for the school year,” stated Prosper executive vice president of strategy Phil Rist.

Online leads again as the most popular shopping channel (48 per cent), while discount stores have grown in appeal (36 per cent, up 5 percentage points), followed by department stores (35 per cent) and college bookstores (27 per cent).

The NRF’s annual survey, based on responses from 7,581 consumers polled between July 1 and July 7, has a margin of error of ±1.1 percentage points and has tracked back-to-school shopping behaviour since 2003.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (HU)