Much more UK profit warnings cite weak consumer confidence in Q3 2025

The figure of profit warnings that referenced falling consumer sentiment rose to 56 per cent for listed retailers.

A record 47 per cent of profit warnings issued in Q3 2025 cited policy change and geopolitical uncertainty as a leading factor—the highest percentage recorded for this cause in more than 25 years of EY’s analysis, and a significant increase from 17 per cent in Q3 2024. 

Eighteen per cent of these have issued at least one warning in the last 12 months.

A third (34 per cent) of profit warnings issued in the third quarter cited contract and order cancellations or delays, while 22 per cent referenced tariff-related impacts, including weaker demand and supply chain disruption.

Over the last 12 months, 18 per cent of UK-listed businesses have issued at least one profit warning. 

“The latest profit warnings data shows that the persistent uncertainty which has weighed heavily on UK businesses has spread to households. The standout trend in Q3 was the knock-on effect of weakening consumer confidence, at its highest since late 2022 when rising energy prices and the wider cost-of-living crisis were having an acute impact on consumer behaviour,” Jo Robinson, EY-Parthenon partner and UK&I Financial Restructuring Leader, said in a company release.

“Companies are still clearly seeing ripples from earlier geopolitical tensions and policy shifts, and the proportion of firms to have issued a warning in the last 12 months has consistently been at a level typically associated with a period of economic shock for the past two years. As the government faces difficult decisions ahead of the Autumn Budget, businesses are continuing to navigate market shifts and external threats, adapting their operations and supply chains to ongoing uncertainty and growing risks like cyberattacks,” he added.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)