US' core retail sales at record $964.4 bn in 2023, match NRF forecast

In November-December, clothing and clothing accessory stores went up by 3 per cent; online and other non-store sales were up by 8.2 per cent; and sporting goods stores sales were up by 0.3 per cent, all on an unadjusted year-over-year (YoY) basis.

The 2023 holiday sales results top the previous record of $929.5 billion spent during the 2022 holiday season. NRF had forecast that 2023 holiday sales would increase between 3 per cent and 4 per cent over 2022 to between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion. Despite a slower growth rate compared with the past three years, when trillions of dollars of stimulus led to unprecedented rates of retail spending during the pandemic, 2023’s holiday spending was consistent with the average annual holiday increase of 3.6 per cent from 2010 to 2019, NRF said in a press release.

“Consumer spending was remarkably resilient throughout 2023 and finished the year with a solid pace for the holiday season,” said NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz. “Although inflation has been the biggest concern for households, the price of goods eased notably and was helped by a healthy labour market, underscoring a successful holiday season for retailers.”

NRF’s calculation of retail sales is based on Census Bureau data but excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail. NRF defines the holiday season as November 1 through December 31.

The holiday total, which is not adjusted for inflation, includes online and other non-store sales, which were up 8.2 per cent at $276.8 billion. NRF had forecast that the category would grow between 7 per cent and 9 per cent to between $273.7 billion and $278.8 billion. Online holiday sales were $255.8 billion in 2022.

The $5.13 trillion full-year total is in line with NRF’s most recent expectation that 2023 annual retail sales would increase about or just below 4 per cent over 2022, reflecting a slowdown in the rate of growth throughout the year. Full-year sales during 2022 totalled $4.95 trillion, which was the previous full-year spending record.

For December alone, retail sales as defined by NRF were up 0.7 per cent seasonally adjusted from November and up 3.3 per cent unadjusted YoY. By comparison, sales were up 0.4 per cent month over month in November and up 4.2 per cent YoY.

The Census Bureau said that overall December retail sales—including autos, gas and restaurants—were up 0.6 per cent from November and up 5.6 per cent YoY. In November, the Census numbers were up 0.3 per cent month over month and up 4 per cent YoY.

While holiday hiring for some retailers was lower than in years past, it was estimated that holiday jobs totalled 439,500 for November and December. NRF expected retailers to hire between 345,000 and 450,000 seasonal workers, in line with 391,000 seasonal hires in 2022. 

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DP)