US holiday retail sales in 2025 may climb up to 4.2%: NRF

Retailers are hiring additional support to meet consumer demand this holiday season. NRF expects retailers to hire between 2,65,000 and 3,65,000 seasonal workers, in line with a slower-paced labour market. By comparison, there were 4,42,000 seasonal hires in 2024.

“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive US economic activity,” Matthew Shay, president and CEO at NRF, said in a press release. “We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories to be able to spend on gifts for loved ones.”

“The economy has continued to show surprising resilience in a year marked by trade uncertainty and persistent inflation. As tariffs have induced an uptick in consumer prices, retailers have tried to hold the line on prices given the uncertainty about trade policies,” said Mark Mathews, NRF chief economist and executive director of research.

Mathews added that while seasonal hiring normally supports the job market this time of year, some hiring may have been pulled forward to support retailers’ holiday buying events in October. Because of the ongoing tariff situation, retailers will be closely monitoring spending patterns and waiting to make staff additions should demand strengthen throughout the holiday season.

A notable headwind this year is the federal government shutdown, the timing of which is particularly challenging just before the holiday season. Delays in federal spending will result in a loss of private-sector income, further eroding consumer demand. While many negative economic impacts are expected to be temporary, their magnitude will escalate the longer the shutdown lasts, added the release.

NRF’s latest holiday survey conducted by Prosper Insights and Analytics, which is separate from the holiday sales forecast, found that consumers plan to spend $890.49 per person on average this year on holiday gifts, food, decorations and other seasonal items.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (SG)