US holiday spending to rise 3% as consumers brace for tariff impact

Consumer sentiment and intentions suggest that the 2025 holiday shopping season will be less predictable and more spread out than any previous year. While most plan to spend about the same as last year, a growing number intend to spend more, according to Circana’s annual Holiday Purchase Intentions Consumer Survey.

Consumers expectation of higher prices will impact what, where, and when consumers shop, with more holiday shoppers planning on getting an earlier start to avoid possible future price increases and take advantage of early season promotions.

More than a third (34 per cent) of holiday shoppers said that they will take advantage of more deals this year. Higher prices may result in fewer gifts to wrap, as 31 per cent of shoppers say they will buy fewer items this holiday.

Holiday shoppers have expanded the duration of their shopping season with an early start. Almost half of consumers plan on starting their holiday shopping before Thanksgiving, and 24 per cent have already started or even finished, up nearly 4 percentage points (pp) from last year.

Black Friday remains the most popular of the traditional shopping days, with 19 per cent planning it as the kick-off to their holiday shopping.

The number of consumers planning to wait till December, thereby getting a late start to holiday shopping, is the lowest (19 per cent) it has been in recent years.

Practicality takes centre stage as consumers are planning on spending more on things like home appliances, housewares, and sporting goods.

“The volatility of consumers is evident in their feelings about the holiday shopping season, which means the flow of the 2025 holiday shopping season will be less predictable,” said Marshal Cohen, chief retail advisor for Circana. “While consumer spending to date has demonstrated resilience, final retail holiday results will be greatly influenced by the timing of everything from promotions to the news of the day.”

“Holiday 2025 will be full of surprises and challenges—from comparisons to the 2024 election impact and continuous economic uncertainty, to the influence of social media influence and the spirit of the holiday season,” added Cohen. “Marketers will need to be diligent in their efforts to inspire the consumer, whether it is tapping into pent-up demand for products from key industries, like apparel, toys, and technology, or appealing to the consumer’s core value of the moment—whether price or priority.”

ALCHEMPro News Desk (SG)