US retail sales to grow up to 3.7% in 2025: NRF

The National Retail Federation (NRF) has forecast that retail sales during 2025 will grow between 2.7 per cent and 3.7 per cent over 2024, reaching between $5.42 trillion and $5.48 trillion.

The 2025 sales projection compares with 3.6 per cent annual sales growth of $5.29 trillion dollars in 2024. This year’s forecast is also in line with the 10-year pre-pandemic average annual sales growth of 3.6 per cent, NRF announced during its fifth annual State of Retail & the Consumer virtual event on the health of American consumers and the retail industry.

Non-store and online sales are expected to grow between 7 per cent and 9 per cent year over year, reaching a total of between $1.57 trillion and $1.6 trillion. This compares to an 8.1 per cent increase in 2024, when online and non-store sales totalled $1.47 trillion.

GDP growth is expected to decline to just below 2 per cent in 2025, down from 2.8 per cent in 2024, and below the trend of recent years.

“Overall, the economy has shown continued momentum so far in 2025 — bolstered by low unemployment and real wage gains — however, significant policy uncertainty is weighing on consumer and business confidence. Still, serving customers will remain retailers’ top priority no matter what the economic environment,” said NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay.

NRF expects PCE inflation during 2025 to remain stable at around 2.5 per cent, even with the implementation of tariffs. Overall, household balance sheets appear to be in good shape. The consumer credit outlook is expected to remain healthy as long as the labour market remains solid.

NRF’s calculation of retail sales excludes automobile dealers, petrol stations, and restaurants, in order to focus on core retail.

“Any way you look at it, a lot is riding on the consumer. While we do expect slower growth, consumer fundamentals remain intact, supported by low unemployment, slower but steady income growth, and solid household finances. Consumer spending is not unravelling. It’s the hard data on employment, income and tariff-induced inflation — not consumer sentiment — that supports our view of a slower trajectory for consumer spending,” said NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (HU)