US consumer confidence falls again in Oct: The Conference Board

The present situation index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labour market conditions—declined to 143.1 from 146.2.

The expectations index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labour market conditions—fell slightly to 75.6 during the month after declining to 76.4 in September. This index is still below 80—the level that historically signals a recession within the next year.

Consumer fears of an impending recession remain elevated, consistent with the short and shallow economic contraction the US think tank anticipates for the first half of next year.

“Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates. Worries around war/conflicts also rose, amid the recent turmoil in the Middle East. The decline in consumer confidence was evident across householders aged 35 and up, and not limited to any one income group,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.

“Assessments of the present situation were driven by less optimistic views on the state of business conditions, but consumers’ rating of current job availability held steady. Fewer consumers said that business conditions were good, and more said they were bad,” she said.

“Expectations for the next six months stayed below the recession threshold of 80, reflecting a decline in confidence about future business conditions, job availability and incomes. The continued skepticism about the future is notable given US consumers—at least through the third quarter of this year—continued to spend heavily on both goods and services,” Peterson added.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)