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Comment: Trade tightens as compliance & circularity reshape sourcing

Global trade is moving back into a defensive posture. A World Trade Organization monitoring update in early December projected merchandise trade growth of *.* per cent in **** and *.* per cent in ****, while members initiate more than ** trade-remedy investigations per month, i.e., around four times early-****s levels. Tariff risk and compliance friction are becoming a core design constraint for man-made fibres, not a background variable.

This tightening climate is also changing which bilateral lanes look investable. India and Russia have set an ambitious target of reaching $*** billion in annual trade by ****, a reminder that geopolitical alignment is now part of the sourcing and market-access calculus alongside cost and capability.