19.1% US consumers say biz conditions good, 16.7% say bad: Think tank

Their appraisals of the labour market improved in December. Thirty-seven per cent of them said jobs are ‘plentiful’—up from 33.6 per cent in November, while 14.8 per cent said jobs were ‘hard to get’—down from 15.2 per cent.

Consumers were less optimistic about the outlook for business conditions for the next six months this month, with 21.7 per cent of them expecting business conditions to improve—down from 24.7 per cent in November, while 18.3 per cent expected such conditions to worsen—up from 15.9 per cent in the last month.

Consumers’ assessments of the labour market outlook returned to being pessimistic: 19.1 per cent of them expect more jobs to be available—down from 22.8 per cent in November; 21.3 per cent anticipated fewer jobs—up from 17.9 per cent in November.

Consumers’ assessments of their income prospects were less optimistic in December: 17.2 per cent expect their incomes to increase—down from 20.7 per cent in November; 14.3 per cent expect their incomes to drop—up from 12.1 per cent in November.

The Conference Board consumer confidence index declined by 8.1 points in December to 104.7. The present situation index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labour market conditions—fell by 1.2 points to 140.2.

The expectations index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labour market conditions—tumbled by 12.6 points to 81.1, just above the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.

The proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months was stable near the series low. Meanwhile, consumers’ assessments of their family’s financial situation—both current and over the next six months—weakened.

Average 12-month inflation expectations stabilised at 5 per cent in December, the lowest since March 2020.

Perceived likelihood of a recession over the next 12 months remained near the series low.

ALCHEMPro News Desk (DS)